Jamie Constable’s Macro Markets Update – June 2023

Jamie Constable, Market Strategist at Singer Capital Markets, is pleased to deliver his latest Macro Markets Update in partnership with John Hughman at Vox Markets.

In this podcast, Jamie Constable talks about the UK’s struggle to shake off the inflationary crisis, why retreating global producer price indices suggest inflation has been a spike rather than entrenched, and why AI could be good for the undervalued FTSE 250.

Chapters:

0:43 – The Bank of England in the firing line having misread the interest rate cycle.
2:28 – The impact of rising mortgage and savings rates, and the bifurcation of the housing market.
3:58 – The global inflation cycle, and why Producer Price Indices suggest inflation is a spike rather than entrenched.
5:58 – What’s happening to wage growth?
7:08 – China’s elusive recovery and how it responds to stagnant economic growth.
8:03 – The risk that a supply-driven inflationary crisis gives way to a demand-driven global recession.
12:48 – Are we stuck in an economic “doom loop” due to global interconnectedness?
18:33 – What the economic backdrop means for the markets, and why Somero Enterprises (SOM) profit warning suggests interest rate rises have worked.
19:58 – The potential impact of AI to improve productivity, and how it may drive Western reindustrialisation to the benefit of the FTSE 250.
23:33 – Why the UK market’s cheapness is an attractive buying opportunity, and the return of the 60:40 portfolio.

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